The problem with premium TV is just that -- subscriptions add a premium above regular cable. The problem related to that is that it's increasingly difficult to maintain ratings, and recover costs as a result.
For example, the audience for Sarah Connor are way down this year, so far down that Fox has only just now ordered the second half of the season -- down 34% overall. And still, nearly 4 million viewers weekly...which puts it in the lower half of ratings among all network shows. Compare this to, say, The Wire on HBO, with 864,000 viewers in its final, most award-winning season.
4.1 million is also a record high for Showtime, the season 4 premiere of Weeds earlier this year. HBO's highest rated night is 8 million, for the premiere of the final season of The Sopranos, whose sustained ratings were of course lower. Compare again to a show barely breaking into the Top 20 like Three and a Half Men, which with ratings down continues to average 9 million viewers.
This puts it behind CBS's overall average, including the bottom of the barrel, of 9.3 million weekly. While Fox's overall average is only 7 million, it includes American Idol, which averaged well north of 30 million, and House...in yet another down year...still averaging well north of 20 million.
A basic cable show like Battlestar Galactica has been called a trainwreck because its ratings are down to "only" 2.1 million.
But say an advertiser is on Sci Fi and Fox - that's still 10 million viewers average viewers for the season , instead a record-breaking dozen Sundays with 8 million. Week in and week out, averaged across even the dogs, commercial TV makes more money than any pay channel. Advertisers follow the eyeballs.
That's also why cable operators have adamantly opposed a la carte packages -- the net effect would be so little money that they couldn't stay in business. Why? Because networks pay to be carried on cable.
It's certainly a long way from being a simple equation as models change, but for now, there's no financial incentive to change.
Besides, I like commercials. I use my DVR to watch my favorites 2 or 3 times before returning to the show. My very very favorite commercials? I watch 'em again on YouTube. They sometimes offer the best drama, best comedy, best effects and most creativity on TV. I'd sorely miss them.
That said, I'm also enjoying shows with fewer commercials, like Fringe, my favorite new show of the year. But those shorter breaks -- as few as 60 seconds, often enough for only one commercial -- add 8 minutes to the average episode: 50 minutes compared to 42. That's nearly a 20% increase in programming, which I'm guessing translates to something similar for production costs. Since overall ratings aren't up 20%, networks have to find new revenue streams. Advertisers aren't paying more for non-focused advertising either, but for matching demographics of shows with demographics of products? They're standing in line to pay big bucks, and the money is going straight into the pockets of production companies. Look for a lot more of this in the future.